Oil crops play an important role in food supply in China. Currently, China heavily depends on import for edible oil supply and this dependence will carry increasing risk in the foreseen future. On the other hand, the growing oil crops are quite sensitive to climate conditions and climate change may add additional risk to the security of edible oil supply. For effectively managing and further reducing these two sets of risks, it is necessary to study the impact of climate change on the output potentials of oil crop cultivation, and explore and evaluate proper adaption policies. In this study, multiple crop growing assessment models will be employed to simulate the yield and output potentials of oil crop cultivation. Major task of this research is to: (1) develop an integrated modeling system; (2) apply this system to assess the impact of climate change on oil crops? growth; (3) apply this system to evaluate potential adaption policies. Methodologically, we intend to reduce the simulation and prediction uncertainty associated with the existing modeling efforts by coupling and improving the climate change models, crop models and agro-economic models, and by perturbation of climate sensitivity parameters in each model.
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